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Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
It doesn't have to be running yet neccessarily, but it would be good for the blog to have the link.
@holiman
Eth-Gitter-Bridge
@Eth-Gitter-Bridge
<M H Swende (holiman)> Sure
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
cool ty
Nick Savers
@nicksavers
Is there confidence that the majority of miners have upgraded?
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
Not yet @nicksavers
Outreach starts after the blog is posted usually.
Ethereum Cat Herders and others plan on reaching out to mining pools. I'm doing a huge twitter tagging outreach as well.
Paweł Bylica
@chfast
For Istanbul Aleth 1.7.1 is needed: https://github.com/ethereum/aleth/releases/tag/v1.7.1
Holger Drewes
@holgerd77
We just released EthereumJS v4.1.1, this is the first release with stable Istanbul support. An upgrade from v4.1.1 (introduced beta support for Istanbul) is highly recommended.
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular

@/all Istanbul announcement blog released.

We are recommending people update their nodes before Dec. 1st in order to account for variable block times

Blog: https://blog.ethereum.org/2019/11/20/ethereum-istanbul-upgrade-announcement/
Tweet: https://twitter.com/ethereum/status/1197022601329201153?s=20
Tweet with fun emojis: https://twitter.com/hudsonjameson/status/1197021040305754112?s=20
Reddit Thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/dyx7oq/ethereum_istanbul_upgrade_announcement/

Spread the word to your friends, miners, exchanges, and anyone else running a node!

econoar
@econoar

Block times keep rising. 14.39s a block yesterday. Up from 13.1

It’s been 2mn blocks since the last delay so it’s activated as far as I can tell.

The ice age is activated*
El De-dog-lo
@fubuloubu
When is your estimate for 20s blocks?
econoar
@econoar
Last time it took 2 months
IIRC each one gets worse but could be misremembering
El De-dog-lo
@fubuloubu
So, we might just make it in time?
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
Can any of the core devs or whoever knows the secret ice age finding formula check?
econoar
@econoar
It’s not reset in Istanbul @bryant
Wow Gitter mobile is horrid
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
It is!
El De-dog-lo
@fubuloubu
Welcome to paradise @econoar!
sassal
@sassal
ia3_kitteh.jpg
i would like to prevent this :P
sassal
@sassal

did some more digging:

since the diff bomb delay is 2mn blocks from when it started kicking in last, the increase in block times syncs up perfectly.

~1 month ago the diff bomb kicked in at around block 876xxxx
~1 year ago the diff bomb kicked in at around block 676xxxx

It's rough data but it fits the theory that block times are getting longer due to the diff bomb.

James Hancock
@MadeofTin
It won’t happen like last time because the difficulty is different this time.
Which is both a good thing for us.
The lower the difficulty the earlier it shows up, but the less quickly it climbs in severity
sassal
@sassal
ah okay thats good to know! do you have any estimates of when block times are likely to hit 20s+?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I think it may be good to work on some documents for Ethhub on the ice age. It is really unnecessarily complicated to achieve its goals.
I lost my development environment yesterday which set back my research
sassal
@sassal
damn :( well im happy to write an ethhub page for it if you have anything you can point me to that i can reference?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Part of the problem is there is no target block time in the codebase.
El De-dog-lo
@fubuloubu
that... is a problem lol
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I have a presentation I wrote last year that is still relevant I can send you.
sassal
@sassal
yes please!
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
And there is no way to predict the effect on block time without also Simulating the hashrate and difficultly changes that happen as far as finding blocks.
econoar
@econoar
The confusion always seems to stem around people thinking the previous fork completely pushes it x blocks but in reality is doesn’t fully reset it. So every fork we’ve been into the bomb so if we push 2mn it doesn’t mean we have 2mn blocks until it starts again. It means 2mn blocks until approx the same state
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Which is weird statistics
@sassal
sassal
@sassal
awesome thank you
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
Great stuff @MadeofTin
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
And even that we only push back block in reference where we are to 'e'.
image.png
so every 16 days(100,000) blocks or so we increment the Ice age one.
econoar
@econoar
As far as I can tell the bomb is activated, we just don’t know the severity of the slope yet. Is that a proper assumption?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I wouldn't be as sure quite yet. Let me put it this way. Why did the block time go below 14 seconds when we adjusted last time? Why is even 14 the equilibrium the network reaches? No one actually knows. At least, I don't know anyone who knows. If anyone does, speak up please!
The only adjustments the protocol makes is if a block time is below 10 seconds it increases difficulty if it is above 20 seconds it reduces it.
econoar
@econoar
Well fwiw block times probably isn’t the best reference. Difficulty itself is spiking while hash is flat/down