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James Hancock
@MadeofTin
The lower the difficulty the earlier it shows up, but the less quickly it climbs in severity
sassal
@sassal
ah okay thats good to know! do you have any estimates of when block times are likely to hit 20s+?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I think it may be good to work on some documents for Ethhub on the ice age. It is really unnecessarily complicated to achieve its goals.
I lost my development environment yesterday which set back my research
sassal
@sassal
damn :( well im happy to write an ethhub page for it if you have anything you can point me to that i can reference?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Part of the problem is there is no target block time in the codebase.
El De-dog-lo
@fubuloubu
that... is a problem lol
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I have a presentation I wrote last year that is still relevant I can send you.
sassal
@sassal
yes please!
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
And there is no way to predict the effect on block time without also Simulating the hashrate and difficultly changes that happen as far as finding blocks.
econoar
@econoar
The confusion always seems to stem around people thinking the previous fork completely pushes it x blocks but in reality is doesn’t fully reset it. So every fork we’ve been into the bomb so if we push 2mn it doesn’t mean we have 2mn blocks until it starts again. It means 2mn blocks until approx the same state
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Which is weird statistics
@sassal
sassal
@sassal
awesome thank you
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
Great stuff @MadeofTin
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
And even that we only push back block in reference where we are to 'e'.
image.png
so every 16 days(100,000) blocks or so we increment the Ice age one.
econoar
@econoar
As far as I can tell the bomb is activated, we just don’t know the severity of the slope yet. Is that a proper assumption?
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I wouldn't be as sure quite yet. Let me put it this way. Why did the block time go below 14 seconds when we adjusted last time? Why is even 14 the equilibrium the network reaches? No one actually knows. At least, I don't know anyone who knows. If anyone does, speak up please!
The only adjustments the protocol makes is if a block time is below 10 seconds it increases difficulty if it is above 20 seconds it reduces it.
econoar
@econoar
Well fwiw block times probably isn’t the best reference. Difficulty itself is spiking while hash is flat/down
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
A change was put in during Homestead to adjust block times and I think there is an EIP associated with it...lemme find it
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
that is even wierder then.
@econoar
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
Oh it's EIP-2, haha
@vbuterin explains it pretty well in the EIP
econoar
@econoar
Ya James since mid-Oct difficulty is up and hash is down.
Hash is down to the eye around 9% and difficulty is up like 1-2%
Yesterday was odd though, hash dropped off a lot
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Are you using ether scan charts? @econoar
econoar
@econoar
Ya
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Okay, so biggest confirmation that eric is indeed right is that the increase to 14 second blocktimes happened around https://etherscan.io/block/8900000
which we know the ice age increments every 100k blocks
@econoar
econoar
@econoar
Yup. Agree.
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
Nov-09-2019 03:07:30 AM
November 10th we see the average block time increase
econoar
@econoar
Also we pushed it 2mn blocks and last time it started around 6.9mn and this time first visibile bump was 8.9mn. But I’ll admit again I’m just eyeing charts and loose remembering of how this works.
sassal
@sassal
seems my data was a little off (it was very rough) but good to know that it still fits
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
good find!
Paweł Bylica
@chfast
@Souptacular The Istanbul ready release of Aleth is 1.7.1: https://github.com/ethereum/aleth/releases/tag/v1.7.1
James Hancock
@MadeofTin
I can confirm it is the Ice-age. The next bump will be in about 5 days.
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
@chfast thanks, I included a link to it in the blog already
@MadeofTin Eeeek
sassal
@sassal
will it require an out-of-schedule hard fork to stop it from freezing the chain @MadeofTin?
Hudson Jameson
@Souptacular
@sassal with the new EIP centric model there isn't exactly a "schedule" but we did have a rough time for Berlin or something. @MadeofTin can explain it better.