And there is no way to predict the effect on block time without also Simulating the hashrate and difficultly changes that happen as far as finding blocks.
The confusion always seems to stem around people thinking the previous fork completely pushes it x blocks but in reality is doesn’t fully reset it. So every fork we’ve been into the bomb so if we push 2mn it doesn’t mean we have 2mn blocks until it starts again. It means 2mn blocks until approx the same state
And even that we only push back block in reference where we are to 'e'.
so every 16 days(100,000) blocks or so we increment the Ice age one.
As far as I can tell the bomb is activated, we just don’t know the severity of the slope yet. Is that a proper assumption?
I wouldn't be as sure quite yet. Let me put it this way. Why did the block time go below 14 seconds when we adjusted last time? Why is even 14 the equilibrium the network reaches? No one actually knows. At least, I don't know anyone who knows. If anyone does, speak up please!
The only adjustments the protocol makes is if a block time is below 10 seconds it increases difficulty if it is above 20 seconds it reduces it.
Well fwiw block times probably isn’t the best reference. Difficulty itself is spiking while hash is flat/down
A change was put in during Homestead to adjust block times and I think there is an EIP associated with it...lemme find it