If one does not use a wrapper for the arbitrator, this has one additional significant disadvantage:
Let's look at your example again:
- Weather insurance contract wants to know the weather as of day 10
- You make your insurance agreement on branch A of reality token on day 1
- Somebody makes a Reality Check question backstopped by arbitrator X, maybe someone else makes a different question backstopped by arbitrator Y
- On day 10, the answer is reported by the Reality Check Arb X question and the Reality Check Arb Y question. For these purposes it doesn't matter whether it was reported by somebody posting the highest bond, or whether someone asked the selected arbitrator to settle it
- On day 10, there is a branch A-A with arbitrator X, and a different branch A-B with arbitrator Y
- You can claim the funds from the weather contract on branch A-A, and also on branch A-B. If arbitrators X and Y gave different responses, maybe different parties will be claiming the funds on those different branches
If the arbitrator X was a good arbitrator over many years, but suddenly turns malicious between day 1 and 10, then the all the people bet on his correct answer in realitycheck will loose their money. RealityToken would only ensure, that the people bet on the weather contract get the right answer. But people betting in realitycheck on arbitrator X would loose their money, right? (They transfer money on branch A, and not matter whether branch A-A or branch A-B is valid, they will not regain access to these transfered realityTokens )
In my wrapper approach, even the bets on realitycheck will be secured by the realitytoken approach.
Over night I prepared a first look/draft of tokenized-events for the realitytoken eco system. It's super basic, but still I put some thought into it.
Contracts are also nearly finished.
I hope that this enables everyone to quickly create long and short bets on any event. The long and short tokens could then be traded on exchanges like instex (it's like idex, but for arbitrary tokens.) This would have a much much better performance than any trading experience augur is offering their clients.
Ah, this solves the replication system within forward looking systems.
In general I do not like utxo models, as you can not easily build smart contracts on them. Referring to some number stored in the realitytoken contract is so much easier than referencing to many utxos and splitting them.
But the idea is good. Currently we are storing balance_changes(address=>amount), maybe we can store them differently balacne_changes(address=> arbitrator=>amount)
... hm just thinking out loud
I am currently reading the book, the intelligent investor from graham, a very old classic. He keeps on pointing out that investing in assets such as gold is not so favorable, because gold is just a collectible and is not "working for you", as stocks do.
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are in some manner also just a collectible. The thought, which is kinda stuck in my head, is that actually, we do not need any cryptocurrency to keep a decentralized worldcomputer running.
We could also create a decentralized index fond (DIF100) on ethereum, which would hold the top 100 most valuable ico's ( like the Nasdaque 100). This DIF100 could be a smart contract that holds these top 100 ico coins and issues DIF100-tokens representing an owernship in all the top 100 tokens.
Now, these DIF100-tokens could be used for staking and for paying fees on the blockchain. And suddenly there is no longer any need for any cryptocurrencies.
I think this is very valuable idea, as index fonds are just the better investment compared to a cryptocurrency, a collectible.
Why do I write this to you? Because it also applies to the realitytoken concept. We could also create an index fund of companies, which profit from some oracle businesses. All these companies could issue some kind of token, which support the fork-economics protocol. I.e. they are easily forkable on the blockchain using subjectivocracy. These companies could be bundled in a decentralized forkable index fond (DFIF100). The tokens of the DFIF100 could then be used instead of realitytokens. This would give users of the eco system a much better protection, as DFIF100 would be a better investment as realitytokens.
Okay, I came up with a new reality concept based on forkonomics. I think it is better than a pure RealityToken concept, as it is not only currency , but also an indexfund generating static value.
I imagine it in the following steps:
After the ecosystem has grown ( maybe in 2 years):
After some more years: