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  • Oct 06 11:18

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting rebuild... (compare)

  • Oct 06 11:18

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting rebuild... (compare)

  • Oct 06 11:11

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting to fix plugin msbuil… (compare)

  • Oct 06 11:11

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting to fix plugin msbuil… (compare)

  • Oct 06 10:56
    vchelaru commented #772
  • Oct 06 10:56
    vchelaru commented #772
  • Oct 06 05:29

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Removed more unused objects. (compare)

  • Oct 06 05:29

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Removed more unused objects. (compare)

  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru pinned #772
  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru pinned #772
  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru labeled #772
  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru labeled #772
  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru opened #772
  • Oct 06 05:28
    vchelaru opened #772
  • Oct 06 05:13

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    More warning fixes on plugins. (compare)

  • Oct 06 05:13

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    More warning fixes on plugins. (compare)

  • Oct 06 04:49

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    More fixes. (compare)

  • Oct 06 04:49

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    More fixes. (compare)

  • Oct 06 04:45

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting to fix by adding spe… (compare)

  • Oct 06 04:45

    vchelaru on NetStandard

    Attempting to fix by adding spe… (compare)

Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
they don't support self hosting? wat
Hi Thomas
Thomas
@devSomethingSomething
How's it going?
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
eh ok, just went shopping and spent a bunch of time portioning and sealing meat for the freezer
Thomas
@devSomethingSomething
Awesome.
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
@KallDrexx yea I can only guess it's because they went to a tiered patron model
It's an open source project, so if you want to figure it out, fine, I guess
and the lowest tier is still free
Thomas
@devSomethingSomething
Lol in my country people are robbing liquor stores during quarantine.
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
I just had tried to get their bot working and the iframe wasn't loading right. Now they're on v2 apparently, and it's more stable
Tristan Rhodes
@tristanbob
I published my ideas about the market. This is a great hobby for people who like math, probability, and drawing lines. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/0HnR4j3T-Retraced-1-2-of-the-COVID-drop-now-ready-to-make-a-big-drop/
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
@tristanbob I'd look at the guardian article I posted yesterday
Essentially the drop we had before, and the "rally" we are in now aren't because people are more optimistic than they were the last few weeks
Tristan Rhodes
@tristanbob
man, you guys talked a lot yesterday! (I found the article tho)
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
lol
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
It was mostly Jesse's spin cycle
Tristan Rhodes
@tristanbob
perhaps is was because this was the week of FRBCon </tear>
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
:(:(:(
still hoping to get my ankle surgery in may though
I'm so done with limping around all the time
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Essentially the drop we had before, and the "rally" we are in now aren't because people are more optimistic than they were the last few weeks
So what is it @KallDrexx I started reading but may not get to finishing it so a spoiler is okay
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
lol I was on a meeting and cut myself mid thought
Essentially a massive amount of liquidity occurred globally due to (covid based) geopolitical issues. Normally when a large sell-off in equities happens institutional investors and funds tend to sell off their less risky assets first (like treasury bonds) because the equity losses would be larger. However, geopolitical issues due to covid was causing massive flocking to US treasuries, which destroyed bond prices. This caused a huge liquidity crunch and forced funds to cascade their sell off in every asset class. The Fed's actions finally took hold to stabilize the treasury bond market and financial/corporate bond markets, which allowed funds/institutions to re-evaluate and re-set up their strategic investments
So the 30% instant drop wasn't because earnings calculations were so bad, the coronavirus triggered something crazy that forced a high sell off
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
So does that mean that earnings haven't yet been considered in the pricing of equities?
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I'm not saying the S&P won't drop more, but it will now drop due to evaluations of future earnings/speculation
I think the slight stabilization we've had and the lowering of the VIX shows that we probably are now at future earnings being considered
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
You think? I mean....
I guess that makes sense if earnings do in fact come back after a year.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I mean you have to take the context of what you are looking at
so sure, S&P 500 is only down to Feb 2019 price, but small cap index is down to 2016 levels
which makes sense because a lot of the behemoths in the S&P 500 are large enough to weather the storm and suck up competition due to this
Dow jones (as not great of an index that is) is down to october 2017 prices
Nasdaq composite is high but i'ts a small index with extreme heavy weights
Vanguard financial industry ETF is down to 2016 prices.
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Yea, that makes sense. If you are a big company, a one-year drop in revenue is not a big deal. If you survive then that's just one year out of all the other years you have to consider when evaluating, but a small company may die if it loses 1 year of revenue.
And that's where I'm kinda torn too. I look at houses and say "Man, if they drop in value I'll be all about them" which implies I subscribe to the one-year drop in revenue with a rapid recovery.
So it's weird for me to expect everyone to disagree with me and see this as a permanent thing that should drop prices way more so that I can buy stuff cheap.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I cancelled my refi because I think I'm better off using the employee rate to buy a new primary residence in < 1 year
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Honestly I think either is probably a good approach.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
Because I think the mortgage rate + house prices will come down for that to be a better deal
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
It's gonna come down to how much mortgage assistance homeowners get.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
The stats I collected earlier that were released today:
  • 5.245M initial jobless claims last week
  • March housing starts at 1.216M, down from 1.564M in Feb (down 22.3%)
  • Philadelphia manufacturing index is at -56.6 compared to -12.7 in march and +36.7 in Feb (>0 indicated improving conditions, <0 indicates worsening conditions) Lowest reading since July 1980
  • Philadelphia manufacturing Employment index fell to -46.7 compared to +4.1 last month, lowest since March 2009
  • Building permits down 6.8% MoM (last month was down 6.3%
  • Continuing jobless claims, 11.976M (up from 7.446M last month
  • 4 week average jobless claims: 5.5M, up from 4.3M
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Yea I mean that all looks bad for housing.
But if homeowners are able to live there for 6 months, no one is going to sell.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
well
I'm not expecting changes for ~8 month