https://discord.gg/tG5RBgw FlatRedBall C#/MonoGame game engine with tools. Need Help? http://flatredball.com/help/ Get started: http://flatredball.com/documentation/tutorials/ It's dangerous to go alone! Take Vic.
I published my ideas about the market. This is a great hobby for people who like math, probability, and drawing lines. https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SPY/0HnR4j3T-Retraced-1-2-of-the-COVID-drop-now-ready-to-make-a-big-drop/
Essentially the drop we had before, and the "rally" we are in now aren't because people are more optimistic than they were the last few weeks
still hoping to get my ankle surgery in may though
I'm so done with limping around all the time
So what is it @KallDrexx I started reading but may not get to finishing it so a spoiler is okay
Essentially a massive amount of liquidity occurred globally due to (covid based) geopolitical issues. Normally when a large sell-off in equities happens institutional investors and funds tend to sell off their less risky assets first (like treasury bonds) because the equity losses would be larger. However, geopolitical issues due to covid was causing massive flocking to US treasuries, which destroyed bond prices. This caused a huge liquidity crunch and forced funds to cascade their sell off in every asset class. The Fed's actions finally took hold to stabilize the treasury bond market and financial/corporate bond markets, which allowed funds/institutions to re-evaluate and re-set up their strategic investments
So the 30% instant drop wasn't because earnings calculations were so bad, the coronavirus triggered something crazy that forced a high sell off
I think the slight stabilization we've had and the lowering of the VIX shows that we probably are now at future earnings being considered
I guess that makes sense if earnings do in fact come back after a year.
so sure, S&P 500 is only down to Feb 2019 price, but small cap index is down to 2016 levels
which makes sense because a lot of the behemoths in the S&P 500 are large enough to weather the storm and suck up competition due to this
Dow jones (as not great of an index that is) is down to october 2017 prices
Nasdaq composite is high but i'ts a small index with extreme heavy weights
Vanguard financial industry ETF is down to 2016 prices.
And that's where I'm kinda torn too. I look at houses and say "Man, if they drop in value I'll be all about them" which implies I subscribe to the one-year drop in revenue with a rapid recovery.
So it's weird for me to expect everyone to disagree with me and see this as a permanent thing that should drop prices way more so that I can buy stuff cheap.
The stats I collected earlier that were released today:
- 5.245M initial jobless claims last week
- March housing starts at 1.216M, down from 1.564M in Feb (down 22.3%)
- Philadelphia manufacturing index is at -56.6 compared to -12.7 in march and +36.7 in Feb (>0 indicated improving conditions, <0 indicates worsening conditions) Lowest reading since July 1980
- Philadelphia manufacturing Employment index fell to -46.7 compared to +4.1 last month, lowest since March 2009
- Building permits down 6.8% MoM (last month was down 6.3%
- Continuing jobless claims, 11.976M (up from 7.446M last month
- 4 week average jobless claims: 5.5M, up from 4.3M
But if homeowners are able to live there for 6 months, no one is going to sell.
I'm not expecting changes for ~8 month
because you need forebearance consequences to play out, and evictions start to become "legal" again
What I'm getting at is - if there 's political will to support people who pay mortgages, housing could stay pretty high.
Servicers have no control over that
Fannie Mae?