Where communities thrive


  • Join over 1.5M+ people
  • Join over 100K+ communities
  • Free without limits
  • Create your own community
People
Repo info
Activity
  • 15:20

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Door auto navigation works! Fi… (compare)

  • 15:20

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Door auto navigation works! Fi… (compare)

  • 02:59

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    New MainDoorEntityPlugin create… (compare)

  • 02:59

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    New MainDoorEntityPlugin create… (compare)

  • 02:45

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Refactored adding events to Ele… (compare)

  • 02:45

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Refactored adding events to Ele… (compare)

  • 00:39

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Added width/height support to D… (compare)

  • 00:39

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Added width/height support to D… (compare)

  • Aug 15 16:19
    vchelaru closed #83
  • Aug 15 16:19
    vchelaru closed #83
  • Aug 15 16:19
    vchelaru closed #84
  • Aug 15 16:19
    vchelaru closed #84
  • Aug 15 16:19

    vchelaru on master

    Copy from Gum\GumDataTypes\Dime… Merge pull request #84 from dub… (compare)

  • Aug 15 16:19

    vchelaru on master

    Copy from Gum\GumDataTypes\Dime… Merge pull request #84 from dub… (compare)

  • Aug 15 15:20

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Added ability to generate event… (compare)

  • Aug 15 15:20

    vchelaru on DoorEntity

    Added ability to generate event… (compare)

  • Aug 15 03:34

    zdman2022 on GlueDynamicManager

    Added ability to restart game f… (compare)

  • Aug 15 03:34

    zdman2022 on GlueDynamicManager

    Added ability to restart game f… (compare)

  • Aug 15 03:05
    dubhlaidh opened #84
  • Aug 15 03:05
    dubhlaidh opened #84
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
lol I was on a meeting and cut myself mid thought
Essentially a massive amount of liquidity occurred globally due to (covid based) geopolitical issues. Normally when a large sell-off in equities happens institutional investors and funds tend to sell off their less risky assets first (like treasury bonds) because the equity losses would be larger. However, geopolitical issues due to covid was causing massive flocking to US treasuries, which destroyed bond prices. This caused a huge liquidity crunch and forced funds to cascade their sell off in every asset class. The Fed's actions finally took hold to stabilize the treasury bond market and financial/corporate bond markets, which allowed funds/institutions to re-evaluate and re-set up their strategic investments
So the 30% instant drop wasn't because earnings calculations were so bad, the coronavirus triggered something crazy that forced a high sell off
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
So does that mean that earnings haven't yet been considered in the pricing of equities?
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I'm not saying the S&P won't drop more, but it will now drop due to evaluations of future earnings/speculation
I think the slight stabilization we've had and the lowering of the VIX shows that we probably are now at future earnings being considered
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
You think? I mean....
I guess that makes sense if earnings do in fact come back after a year.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I mean you have to take the context of what you are looking at
so sure, S&P 500 is only down to Feb 2019 price, but small cap index is down to 2016 levels
which makes sense because a lot of the behemoths in the S&P 500 are large enough to weather the storm and suck up competition due to this
Dow jones (as not great of an index that is) is down to october 2017 prices
Nasdaq composite is high but i'ts a small index with extreme heavy weights
Vanguard financial industry ETF is down to 2016 prices.
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Yea, that makes sense. If you are a big company, a one-year drop in revenue is not a big deal. If you survive then that's just one year out of all the other years you have to consider when evaluating, but a small company may die if it loses 1 year of revenue.
And that's where I'm kinda torn too. I look at houses and say "Man, if they drop in value I'll be all about them" which implies I subscribe to the one-year drop in revenue with a rapid recovery.
So it's weird for me to expect everyone to disagree with me and see this as a permanent thing that should drop prices way more so that I can buy stuff cheap.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
I cancelled my refi because I think I'm better off using the employee rate to buy a new primary residence in < 1 year
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Honestly I think either is probably a good approach.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
Because I think the mortgage rate + house prices will come down for that to be a better deal
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
It's gonna come down to how much mortgage assistance homeowners get.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
The stats I collected earlier that were released today:
  • 5.245M initial jobless claims last week
  • March housing starts at 1.216M, down from 1.564M in Feb (down 22.3%)
  • Philadelphia manufacturing index is at -56.6 compared to -12.7 in march and +36.7 in Feb (>0 indicated improving conditions, <0 indicates worsening conditions) Lowest reading since July 1980
  • Philadelphia manufacturing Employment index fell to -46.7 compared to +4.1 last month, lowest since March 2009
  • Building permits down 6.8% MoM (last month was down 6.3%
  • Continuing jobless claims, 11.976M (up from 7.446M last month
  • 4 week average jobless claims: 5.5M, up from 4.3M
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Yea I mean that all looks bad for housing.
But if homeowners are able to live there for 6 months, no one is going to sell.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
well
I'm not expecting changes for ~8 month
because you need forebearance consequences to play out, and evictions start to become "legal" again
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
What if those consequences are just - your term is now 6 mo longer
What I'm getting at is - if there 's political will to support people who pay mortgages, housing could stay pretty high.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
Well it's not as simple as extending loans
Servicers have no control over that
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Who does?
Fannie Mae?
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
the investors of the loans need to agree, and depending on how split up the loan is that may be difficult
40% or so of all mortgages aren't backed by Fannie/government investors
they are backed by private investors/mortgage holders
also remember
Mortgage servicers still have to pay the investors while you are in forbearance
That's why usually loans aren't extended and you have to pay the whole amount after forbearance
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
That's no good
For homeowners.
Matthew Shapiro
@KallDrexx
yeah so who knows how this will shake out
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
the bot is up there
actually looks really nice
that discord button on the right
Victor Chelaru
@vchelaru
Is it that circle?
If so, can you push it up a little bit so it doesn't overlap the other chat?
Domenic Datti
@kainazzzo
yea I mean we would remove the other chat button
it only shows up on /chat right now